When to buy: timing a technology purchase

Most "wait for the next one" advice is wrong, because the next one is always six months away and the one after that is six months past it. The useful question is narrower: is a specific, dated improvement coming that changes your decision?

The framework

                       Is a dated release coming < 3 months?
                        │                         │
                       yes                        no
                        │                         │
          Does it change your pick?          Buy now.
          │                    │
         yes                   no
          │                    │
   Wait for it.          Buy now.

"Dated" means announced with a date, not rumoured. "Changes your pick" means a different model would win your comparison, not that it's marginally faster.

Signals that it's a good time to buy

Signal	Why
The product is mid-cycle and mature	Bugs shaken out, price settled, accessories available
A successor just launched	The previous generation drops in price and is often the value pick
Your current setup is the bottleneck now	The cost of waiting is measured in your time, every day

Signals to wait

Signal	Why
A successor is dated within ~8 weeks	You'll feel foolish, and the current model will drop
A standard is about to change (a connector, a protocol)	Buying into the old one strands you
Prices are actively falling week to week (shortage clearing)	A month of patience is worth real money

The rule

Buy when the thing you need is mature and nothing dated in the next quarter changes which product wins. Do not wait for "better in general" — that never arrives, and the productivity you lose waiting almost always exceeds the upgrade you're waiting for.